Factor-Based Ex-Ante Tracking Error

Quantify projected excess return volatility and pinpoint how parallel shifts, curve shape, and sector-quality allocation decisions diverge from the index.
White Papers
Posted on 06.20.25
factor based ex ante tracking error

Factor-based ex-ante tracking error methodology equips users to anticipate and deconstruct the sources of active risk relative to an index—such as parallel rate shifts, curve shape changes, and sector-quality allocation—enabling targeted risk management and alignment with investment mandates.

This white paper covers

  • Methodology for quantifying projected active risk using historical yield curve and spread scenarios

  • Breakdown of tracking error into:

    • Parallel shift risk

    • Non-parallel (key rate) shift risk

    • Sector-quality allocation risk

  • Separate modeling for taxable and tax-exempt securities
  • Integration with portfolio construction and trading workflows
  • Treatment of out-of-index and unmapped securities
  • Consistency with CIM’s factor-based performance attribution framework

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